The Deal Structure Workbook
An Excel model that values a biotech licensing deal from both sides: what the asset is worth, what each party receives once risk and time are counted, the partner’s return, and where the terms sit between walk-away and ceiling.
$299, one-time purchase. Excel 2016 or later, Windows or Mac, no macros.
What it does
It puts a term sheet through the same risk-adjusted analysis a pharma BD group runs, from both sides of the table, in an Excel file you keep and can take into a negotiation.
You enter the program’s stage, disease area, development plan, and sales by region, then the terms: upfront, milestones by stage, sales milestones, tiered royalties with a term and step-down, cost sharing, profit share, funding, and fees. The workbook shows what the asset is worth in the partner’s hands, what the licensor receives once risk and time are counted, the partner’s risk-adjusted return, and where the deal sits between the licensor’s walk-away value and the asset’s value to the partner. Two structures run side by side, the Sensitivity tab values each term before you trade it, and a scenario tree proves the arithmetic.
What it adds to the free calculator
The free Deal Structure Calculator gives a quick read on a single license in your browser. The workbook is the full model behind it.
| Free calculator | Excel workbook ($299) | |
|---|---|---|
| Runs where | In your browser | Your own Excel file (Excel 2016 or later, Windows or Mac, no macros) |
| Probability of success | BIO 2011 to 2020 rates for 15 disease areas, fixed | The same defaults, editable at every stage |
| Development plan | Preclinical through filing | Six stages, including a Phase 2a and 2b split, with the cost and who pays at each stage |
| Sales | One worldwide forecast with a linear ramp | US, EU, Japan, and rest of world, each with its own launch lag, uptake shape, loss of exclusivity, and gross-to-net; peak sales or a patient-and-price build |
| Costs | A margin that ramps to peak | A full product P&L: cost of goods, sales and marketing, G&A, pre-launch spend, working capital, and tax for each party |
| Deal terms | Upfront, stage milestones, one sales milestone, two royalty tiers | Milestones at the start or completion of each stage, up to four sales milestones, five royalty tiers with regional rates, a royalty term and step-down, R&D funding, and annual and option fees |
| Structures | License | License, co-development cost sharing, and profit share (by region), all from one product P&L |
| Outputs | Value split, licensee return, negotiating range, and a plain-English read | All of those, plus probability of loss, success-case and failure-case values, value received before Phase 3, value at each stage gate, and break-even year |
| Sensitivity | None | What each term is worth to each side: $1M more on any milestone, a point of royalty, ten points of probability, or 10% more peak sales |
| Checks | None | A Checks tab that proves the two sides add up to the asset, year by year |
Price and terms
$299, one-time purchase.
Includes the workbook, a 10-page user guide, and version 1.x updates by email. Licensed for use within one organization, and not for use by advisers on behalf of their clients. If it isn’t right for you, a full refund is available within seven days.
Payment is handled by Stripe, which also calculates any sales tax or VAT. When the payment goes through you’ll go straight to the download page, and the link is emailed to you as well.